Decision Hygiene
Stress-test important choices with pre-mortems, base rates, assumptions, and expected-value thinking. This is still a catalog page: it shows the available skills, but the surrounding product and solution context lives elsewhere.
Skills
Pre-Mortem Analysis
@pre-mortemAssume the decision failed 12 months from now, then work backward to surface the failure modes, early warning signs, and mitigations you'd otherwise miss.
Examples
@pre-mortem we launch enterprise next quarter and it flops@pre-mortem accepting this acquisition offer@pre-mortem hiring a VP Sales before product-market fitBase Rate Check
@base-rateGround a decision in comparable outcomes, historical patterns, and company memory instead of optimistic timelines or anecdotal evidence.
Examples
@base-rate can we migrate the stack in 3 months?@base-rate what happens when startups of our stage hire enterprise AEs this early?@base-rate should we expect this pricing experiment to lift conversion?Inversion Analysis
@invertFlip the question from "how do we win?" to "how do we guarantee failure?" and use that inversion to expose fragile assumptions and avoidable mistakes.
Examples
@invert how do we guarantee this market expansion fails?@invert what would make this fundraising process collapse?@invert how do we ruin this product launch?Assumption Audit
@assumptionsList the hidden assumptions behind a plan, what evidence supports each one, what would falsify it, and what breaks if it turns out wrong.
Examples
@assumptions audit our Series A plan@assumptions what are we assuming in this pricing change?@assumptions test the logic behind this hiring roadmapExpected Value Calculator
@expected-valueFrame a decision as a probabilistic bet, compare upside and downside across options, and make the tradeoffs explicit instead of emotional.
Examples
@expected-value should we take this partnership deal?@expected-value compare raising now versus extending runway@expected-value evaluate hiring this senior engineering leaderSecond-Order Effects
@second-orderMove beyond first-order consequences and trace the follow-on effects, dependencies, and unintended outcomes a few steps ahead.
Examples
@second-order what happens if we cut self-serve and go full enterprise?@second-order what follows after this team reorg?@second-order think through the downstream effects of raising a bigger roundNeed more than the pack?
Bridge back to product surfaces, use cases, and resources
Use the catalog to pick a capability. Use the rest of the site when you need the broader product map, the workflow story, or detailed guidance.
Platform overview
Use the platform overview when you need the system map before choosing a capability.
Use cases
Use /solutions when the question is about a workflow or use case rather than a specific capability.
Platform surfaces
Use /platform when you already know the surface you want to work in.
Resources hub
Use /resources for help, developer docs, security, and higher-level guidance around the capability layer.